Obama predicts black voter increase, Southern wins

Democratic Presidential candidate Barack Obama's historic campaign to win the Presidency boosts black turnout as drastically as he predicts, he could crack decades of Republican dominance across the South. However that's a big "if" but it is not impossible cause anything is possible. the Associated Press analysis of U.S. Census and voting data from the past four presidential elections show a potentially dramatic impact should Obama fulfill his pledge to elevate black participation by 30 percent. This would add nearly 1.8 million votes in 11 Southern states, the analysis shows, enough to tip the balance in several that have been Republican strongholds.

Obama and his campaign expect a likely increase in black turnout as well as expects a surge of young voters to help him compete in states that have been reliably red since the once solidly Democratic South flipped to the Republicans in 1964. As I have previously reported, states such as North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama will be in play along with Florida, Mississippi and Tennessee perhaps. Coming from the state of Tennessee as a recent graduate of Tennessee State, I have told many people that Obama could win Tennessee if he only campaigns here. While the East portion of Tennessee is hard to win, Obama can do what Harold Ford Jr. did when he ran for U.S. Senator. While Ford garnered more votes than expected in East Tennessee, it was in the Western portion of the state that failed Ford. That's why if Obama can learn from Harold's mistake and capitalize on producing a large turnout in Shelby County particularly Memphis than Obama could win the state as long as it doesn't rain on election day and if many people take advantage of early voting in the state.

It is clear that Obama and his campaign can rewrite the Presidential election map as well as the Electoral map for Democrats all across America but it all starts with learning from previous Democrats who have ran for office. Obama's message of hope and change has gotten him this far but now he needs to reach out further to more voters by really walking the beat like never before. Obama's 50 state plan is great but it is the walking and knocking the doors as well as phone banking that will deliver the type of outcome that Obama wants in November which is a Democratic sweep and an Obama Presidential victory.

When Obama set the 30 percent goal himself last August at a campaign stop in New Hampshire.
"I guarantee you African-American turnout, if I'm the nominee, goes up 30 percent around the country, minimum," he said. "Young people's percentage of the vote goes up 25-30 percent. So we're in a position to put states in play that haven't been in play since LBJ." The math backs up Obama's analysis— if he can deliver the turnout he promises than it is no telling what can happen for Democrats all across America. In Georgia, the GOP presidential nominee's average margin of victory in the past four elections was 216,000 votes. If 30 percent more voting-age blacks go to the polls in November than the four-year average — with all else equal, and Obama capturing all of those votes — he would win the state by 84,000 ballots.

Now should 90 percent of those voters go for Obama, a figure he achieved among blacks in some primaries this year, he would still have enough to win the state and its 15 electoral votes.
If Obama reached his goal of a 30 percent increase and brought all those new black voters into his fold, he could also win in Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Virginia and Florida. Wins in the six states would give him 81 new electoral votes — enough to beat Arizona Sen. John McCain even if the Republican won almost every other toss-up state in the nation, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, Missouri and Ohio.

Obama's promise of a 30 percent boost in black turnout also could pull him into a tie with McCain in Mississippi. Then again, in South Carolina, a conservative state that went to President Bush by 17 percentage points four years ago, Obama could come within 17,000 votes — less than a percentage point. Ditto in North Carolina, a state often mentioned as a possible Southern pickup for Obama. While some have argued that Democrats don't need to win the South in order to win the White House but a 12 percent increase in black turnout across the region would be enough to swing Virginia, Florida and perhaps another state.

Not everyone is sold on Obama's guarantee because many don't believe that the black vote will increase by 30 percent and if it does than Obama would have proved the doubters wrong but even Obama advisers admit they have a distance to go in capturing Obama's visionary promise. That's why Obama's plan is a long shot but it is possible if Obama's campaign does its part to make a difference. For instance, in four southern states that were able to provide figures by race— North Carolina, Alabama, Georgia, and Louisiana — the number of registered black voters has risen 12 percent since the beginning of 2006. That's a remarkable run, and one that could be further buoyed by an increased turnout among blacks already registered. But white turnout has been up, too.

Also, there's no way Obama will win all black votes, even in this history-making election as the first recognizable black candidate on a major-party ballot. About 11 percent of black votes went to Bush in 2004, though that figure is expected to decrease substantially in this year's race between Obama and McCain. Plus there is no guarantee that Obama will keep the support of all Democrats who voted for John Kerry, Al Gore and President Clinton in the previous three elections. An AP-Yahoo News election survey has found that 8 percent of all whites say they would be very uncomfortable voting for a black presidential candidate, and even 16 percent of Democrats say they would have at least some reservations.

So it is an important change in dynamics of Southern politics if Obama reached his goal of increasing black voter turnout by 30 percent. However Obama can't just win simply with that and he's got to continue to be attractive to white voters. Other factors will play a role in this year's election by the reality of the matter is that the African American vote is pivotal to the Democratic Party more this year than in previous elections. After years of being ignored and after I have constantly wrote that as African Americans our vote is important and we should be catered to like Hispanics, Obama's vision and plan could make this possible.

If Obama wants to increase the African American vote by 30 percent than he needs to tell his campaign that this plan starts now not after the Democratic Convention. For far too long the African American vote has been ignored and sometimes has gone unheard in Presidential elections but this could be the year that all that changes not only because we have an African American running for President but because Obama told reporters and others last August that he can increase African American turnout as well as youth turnout. That's why Obama's guarantee is important to him winning the Presidency as well as important to Democrats winning key southern as well as battleground states as well as state races.

The vision that Obama and the Democratic Party must have going forward is to go to every crack house, every liquor store, every black neighborhood, every nuck and cranny that exists and turnout the black vote like never before. The Obama campaign, the Democratic Party and other organizations supporting Obama need to go to the basketball courts, sporting events, and every hood/ghetto activity that exists in the black communities that attract large turnouts from blacks and get these folks not only registered to vote but out to vote in November. That's why the time to enact Obama's vision and promise cannot wait another day but it must start right here, right now.