John McCain, the Republican Party Presidential nominee, vice presidential candidate will be all about the electoral map because that is what will matter in deciding who wins this year's election. With Obama virtually leading McCain in all electoral map data as well as general election poll data in most states. It is clear that McCain's vice presidential candidate has to trenscend McCain's candidacy and give McCain a major boost in battleground states such as Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, and more. At the same time, McCain's VP choice has to solidify McCain's lead in southern states like Tennessee, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi and Arkansas, while at the same time keeping McCain strong out west and competitive in the Midwest. That's why McCain's VP choice will be all about the electoral map because that is what McCain has to depend on come this November. McCain will probably not win the popular vote but the electoral college is still possible for McCain to win and that is why his vice presidential choice will either help or hurt him.
That's why voters have to understand the Electoral College in order to understand how McCain is able to compete with Obama in a year when any Democrat should be able to beat any Republican for the Presidency. As history has shown, nothing is a gurantee and what McCain has on his side is the electoral map that could give him the 270 votes needed but this will all depend on his vice presidential. This is the the year where the Vice Presidential candidates could play an even larger role in the election than the candidates themselves but McCain who has said he would rather lose an election than war, doesn't really mean that because he wants to win the war so he will do everything he can to win the White House so he can implement the right plan to win the war on terrorism.
That's why it is important to understand the Electoral College — even now, months before the November election — because national polls are useless unless they take the college into account. For example, a Newsweek poll released last week gives an incorrect picture of the current state of the campaign:
“A month after emerging victorious from the bruising Democratic nominating contest, some of Barack Obama’s glow may be fading,” Newsweek reported. “In the latest Newsweek Poll, the Illinois senator leads Republican nominee John McCain by just 3 percentage points, 44 percent to 41 percent. The statistical dead heat is a marked change from last month’s Newsweek poll, where Obama led McCain by 15 points, 51 percent to 36 percent.”
On its face, the poll seems to show that McCain is in a statistical tie with Obama — and gaining ground fast. If McCain’s strategists are foolish enough to believe such polls, then the election is already over. And he’s lost. Because in reality, McCain is an underdog, with a big job ahead of him. “Pollster John Zogby says Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has a substantial lead over Republican John McCain in the Electoral College,” the
Austin American-Statesman reported Thursday. “Zogby’s latest Electoral College map of the United States has Obama with 273 electoral votes to 146 for McCain. In Zogby’s previous assessment of the Electoral College map, Obama also had 273 but McCain had 160. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.” Zogby estimates that 119 votes are still too close to call. And those votes are what this race is about — not the popular vote.
WHAT IT IS?--The United States Electoral College is composed of the people who really elect the president and the vice president. It’s not the popular vote that picks the chief executive — most voters are at least vaguely aware of that, after the 2000 election in which a few thousand votes in Florida and a U.S. Supreme Court challenge decided the race. Essentially, we voters cast a ballot for president, but we’re really voting for electors. Those 538 electors choose the president, based on how we vote. But there’s a key difference. Electors vote as state blocs. So if Candidate A wins a state, even narrowly, then all of the state’s electors vote for Candidate A. The result can be — and has been several times — that a candidate can win the popular vote but lose the election.
There are two exceptions, Maine and Nebraska. Their electors vote in congressional district blocs, so those aren’t “winner take all” states.
WHY--That’s an excellent question. It’s because the framers of the U.S. Constitution wanted to avoid direct popular election of the president. Their reasons varied, but for the most part, it was an effort to guard against the “tyranny of the majority.” In the purest democratic systems, the majority is always right. The framers of the Constitution recognized that in fact, majorities are sometimes wrong. Electors, they reasoned, would be better informed and better judges of the candidates.
WHY NOW--With better communication, an active and pervasive media, do we still need the Electoral College? Are the electors really better informed than the populace, when we have 24-hour coverage and commentary?
For--There are some arguments for keeping the system, it turns out. First, it requires widespread support to win. Without the college, in theory, a candidate could focus all of his or her efforts on the most populous states and ignore the others. If resources were limited (and they always are), smaller states would get bypassed completely. But the Electoral College system gives proportionate, distributed power to less-populated states and regions. Second, the Electoral College enhances the impact of minority groups. Small groups become the deciding factor in whether a candidate wins all or nothing in a state. Third, the system ensures that turnout problems don’t throw an election. If it’s sunny in California, for example, but a November snowstorm keeps people at home in the Midwest, the Midwesterners don’t see their voices silenced; all of their electors, though responding to fewer votes, still count.
Against--There are also arguments against the Electoral College. First, the college makes the popular vote somewhat irrelevant. Four times, in fact, candidates who lost a plurality the popular vote have taken office (1824, 1876, 1888 and 2000). And many more times, candidates have taken office without winning a majority. There are also claims that the Electoral College discourages voter turnout and participation. Voter registration and turnout drives in “safe” states are a waste of time and resources for both the presumed winner and loser. And the system forces candidates to focus on the big “swing” states, at the expense of other parts of the country. Pennsylvania, for example, has 21 electoral votes that are up in the air. That state will see much more of both candidates than will Texas (assumed to be safe for McCain) and New York (assumed to be safe for Obama).
That's why as McCain looks to pick his Vice Presidential nominee, he will be careful to look at the Electoral College map so that he chooses a VP who can deliver major dividends to him in battleground states that are currently a toss up. That's why despite McCain trailing in a couple of Electoral College polls, he still has up because those polls don't show who wins the other 119 electoral votes that are out there. Plus many of these polls are predictions and are based off of the 2004 Presidential election results in terms of how Bush or Kerry won the state as well as previous Presidential history in the sense do these states vote Democrat or Republican majority of the time in Presidential races. So for now McCain will think long and hard about which Vice Presidential candidate gives him the most bang for his buck in terms of winning the Presidency come this November.
References:
Sources: McCain VP short list includes Colin Powell, Mitt Romney http://www.bizjournals.com/baltimore/stories/2008/07/21/daily45.html
Pawlenty vs. Bloomberg? http://ww3.startribune.com/bigquestionblog/?p=1110
Analyzing the Republicans most frequently mentioned as running mates for John McCain http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/politics/national/stories/072608dnpolmccainveep.fe595d.html
Laying Odds On McCain's Veep http://www.realclearpolitics.com/politics_nation/2008/07/laying_odds_on_mccains_veep.html
Breakdown Of McCain's Potential VP Picks http://www.411mania.com/politics/columns/80119/Breakdown-Of-McCain%5C%5Cs-Potential-VP-Picks.htm
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