An analysis of the state-by-state race to 270 electoral votes between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain.
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SOLID Obama:
States: California (55), Connecticut (7), District of Columbia (3), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Massachusetts (12), Maryland (10), New Jersey (15), New York (31), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11).
Electoral votes: 190.
Analysis: Obama should sail to victory in these states. New Jersey is tightening a bit in polls, but it always does given that the southern part of the state watches TV from the Philadelphia media market that is flooded with ads meant for Pennsylvania voters.
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LEAN Obama:
States: Iowa (7), Minnesota (10), New Mexico (5), Michigan (17).
Electoral votes: 39
Analysis: Obama recently opened up a lead in New Mexico in part because Hispanics haven't warmed to McCain the way they did to President Bush, and in Michigan, where McCain is having difficulty shaking off the albatross that is the unpopular Bush. Iowa continues to tilt toward Obama, though Republicans insist it's very close. Minnesota polls show McCain having gained ground with TV ads and staff in the state. It could fall to the tossup category if the race continues to narrow. Obama's campaign isn't airing ads in the state, a sign it's not worried.
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TOTAL Obama:
18 states and the District of Columbia: 229 votes.
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SOLID McCain:
States: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3).
Electoral votes: 163.
Analysis: Add Alaska, Georgia, Montana and North Dakota to the list of safe McCain states. Obama had made a play for Alaska but pulled out after McCain put the state's governor, Sarah Palin, on his ticket. And Obama left the airwaves and moved staff out of Georgia when that state became out of reach. Obama also is moving staff out of North Dakota and is slated to pull down TV ads next week. He's still on the air in Montana at low levels, but polls show McCain with a comfortable lead. The Obama campaign's tough talk about Arizona, McCain's home state, has proven to be just talk and no action.
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LEAN McCain:
States: Indiana (11), Missouri(11), North Carolina (15).
Electoral votes: 37.
Analysis: McCain has maintained his edge in Missouri, though it easily could move to the up-for-grabs category. So too North Carolina. Both campaigns are investing heavily in the Southern state. McCain has history on his side; Obama has an influx of liberal-leaning transplants. Obama also is making as serious play for Indiana and polls show the race tightening, though McCain is not concerned enough to counter there just yet. Republican allies, however, are likely to take it upon themselves to go up on the air in Indiana soon.
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TOTAL McCain:
24 states, 200 votes.
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TOSSUPS:
States: Colorado (9), Florida (27), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (20), Pennsylvania (21), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10).
TOTAL: 8 states and 109 votes.
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