Michigan’s Gubernatorial Forecast

2010 is just around the corner and that means the gubernatorial elections are sure to ramp up especially with the latest polls that have come out. The latest polls show that Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox and U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra are leading the Republican pack for the party’s gubernatorial nomination, according to a poll released Friday. The statewide poll of 600 likely Michigan voters showed that 27% would support Cox in the GOP primary next August, while 23% backed Hoekstra and 15% would vote for Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard. Ann Arbor businessman Rick Snyder and state Sen. Tom George of Kalamazoo would get 2% each. Now this has to be a hard blow to Oakland County Sherriff Mike Bouchard who made Secretary of State Terri Lynn his running mate just two weeks ago but perhaps future polls will show the benefits of that decision because it is unclear if the pollsters knew of that decision when choosing who they would side with as Governor.

The results were released by the political newsletter Inside Michigan Politics and Marketing Resource Group as about 1,800 Republicans prepared to journey to Mackinac Island for a conference this weekend that marked the unofficial start of the 2010 election season. On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. John Cherry holds a commanding lead over other announced candidates, state Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith of Salem Township and former state Rep. John Freeman. Cherry would get 40% of the vote among likely voters in a Democratic primary election, while Freeman would get 9% and Smith would pick up 8%. The pollsters also asked whether the voters would approve a tax increase over a state government shutdown; 51% said shut the place down, and 45% said to avoid a shutdown by raising taxes. The poll was conducted from Sept. 12-20 and has a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points.

However the poll also showed that as Republican candidates for statewide offices converged on Mackinac Island yesterday to court party activists, a statewide poll shows Attorney General Mike Cox with an early edge in the governor's race. Cox leads Lt. Gov. John Cherry, the front-runner for the Democratic nomination, 45 percent to 32 percent in a survey of 600 likely voters conducted by Mitchell Research & Communications Inc. and provided to The Detroit News. In a smaller sample of 209 likely Republican voters, Cox drew 30 percent support, followed by U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra of Holland at 23 percent, then Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard at 11 percent and Ann Arbor investor Rick Snyder and state Sen. Tom George of Kalamazoo at 2 percent, with one-third undecided.

Pollster Steve Mitchell said Cox has "a solid lead" but the large number of undecided voters means the contest is up for grabs. "This race will ultimately be decided by who has the most money to carry their message to the voters next August," he said. All five GOP candidates were on Mackinac Island for the Republican Leadership Conference. They'll take part in the first full-fledged debate of the campaign Saturday morning. Sponsored by the Michigan Taxpayers Alliance, the debate will be broadcast by radio stations across the state. Republican consultant Tom Shields said the conference used to be the unofficial kickoff of campaign season for Republicans, but since many campaigns are under way it has become more than that. "There's some pressure there to have a good showing with lots of volunteers," Shields said. "It was the kickoff, now it's almost like campaigns need to be peaking at Mackinac."

The island summit is the perfect spot for all GOP candidates to woo party regulars, do a little fundraising and make an attempt to stand out against the competition. They'll shake hands on the sprawling porch of the Grand Hotel, host receptions for the attendees and meet behind closed doors with party bigwigs. Stu Sandler, campaign manager for Cox, added: "We look at this conference as a chance to meet with the party base." But when looking at the two polls, it is clear that Cox is the frontrunner for the governor’s mansion and he plans to capitalize on that. I have to say that Cox has surely shown that he is not short on coming up with ideas with his 92 Point Booklet that outlines 92 ideas he would seek to pass into law in order to fix Michigan heading into the next decade.

Nonetheless, being the frontrunner in any poll doesn’t mean it is a guarantee that the election is virtually won because the only polls that matter will be the ones in August and November of 2010. So when looking at the current landscape of the polls, the reality is that everyone in the state of Michigan knows that state-wide elections are won and lost based off of the turnout in the City of Detroit and Wayne County especially for Democratic candidates. However Attorney General Mike Cox is from Wayne County and knows how Wayne County politics works as well as has worked with Democrats and Republicans in both the Wayne County area to get critical solutions to that region.

Still for anyone to think that the Governor’s mansion is lock for Cox are being misled because there are many heavy hitters on the GOP side vying for Governor but make no mistake about it Cox is the top gun leading the GOP side and perhaps leading the general polls as well. While on the Democratic side, it seems as Cherry is the top man but some Democrats would like to see some other big names jump into the race to challenge Cherry. But I am more inclined to say that while big names could produce more of a challenge to Cherry’s candidacy, I would like to encourage all Democrats in Michigan to look at the two people who are currently challenging Cherry carefully. In fact I would like the big tent of unions to look closely at the candidacies of Freeman and Wheeler because they both offer alternative ideas to the future of Michigan.

No offense to Cherry but he is running off of the last 8 years of Governor Jennifer Granholm and despite the fact Cherry is a union man, it can’t be lost on the fact that for the last 8 years, Michigan’s economy has gotten worse and diversification in it has not occurred. In fact Michigan was the first state in the recession and from the looks of things, we will be the last state out. Therefore I strongly encourage all Democrats to look closely at the candidacies of Wheeler and Freeman for Governor on the Democratic ticket because although they might not have the big name they do offer ideas that I have not heard from Cherry’s camp. In fact, I believe that big names are not always the solution to campaigns but it is rather ideas that should lead people to vote for a candidate.

With that said Cherry has picked up endorsements left and right throughout the state as he tries to lock up the gubernatorial seat for the state’s Democratic Party and the endorsements come from all over. However, I refuse to believe that Cherry can run for Governor without answering the questions regarding his record of the last 8 years under the Granholm administration. This is why with a huge amount of undecided voters unsure about who they will vote for Governor, it is the time for ideas to be heard and for us the voters to listen carefully to what the candidates have to say as they all seek to fix Michigan’s problems as our state’s next Governor. That is one neither Cox nor Cherry should be handled the baton so easily. We the people must hold all the candidates running for Governor to the same standards and we should all be willing to listen to everyone seeking our vote in order to see who has the best ideas not who has the best chance at competing. While some Democrats think Cherry is the Democrat’s nominee for Governor, I want to encourage Democratic voters to not just allow Cherry to slide by without having him answer the difficult decisions affecting us the people.

So Michigan’s Gubernatorial forecast is not as clear as many would like to think and I believe that we the voters of this state must look at every candidate no matter if they are a Democrat or Republican carefully before we just hand someone our vote. We need to examine each of their records and most importantly their ideas for how to fix our state because Michigan needs solutions and needs someone with a backbone to stand up for everyone in the state and not just rollover to unions, big business, lobbyists, other special interest groups, poll numbers and political party officials. The next Governor of the state of Michigan must be able to weather any storm while also making decisions that will create a better economic and social future for the state. This is why the 2010 Governor’s race is so important and why neither the Democratic or Republican Party’s of the state should allow any of those seeking office to run from the issues or to glide by without answering to the people. Debates and forums throughout the state should be held in every county and as many towns and cities as possible so that we the people of Michigan can understand exactly where each candidate stands on many issues plaguing our state.

This is what we the people of Michigan must demand from our state Political parties and from those seeking the office of Governor. This is the only way a state-wide political race can be about ideas and not about personalities or wealth but rather someone’s record of service and what they bring to the job they are seeking especially in a time when our state needs real leadership like never before at the top.