According to the Congressional Budget Office, the federal budget deficit will reach $1.6 trillion in 2010. After that, the situation is even worse. The agency projects the deficit could exceed $9 trillion over 10 years. Over the past year, the government has taken some extraordinary steps, intervening in the marketplace in ways it had never done before. Before President George W. Bush left office, his administration engineered an unprecedented rescue of our nation's financial system that involved the government in running large financial institutions.
The financial rescue was absolutely necessary but was not enough by itself to get America out of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. Just weeks into office, President Barack Obama enacted a major stimulus package and provided much-needed aid to the domestic auto industry.
These measures are working. Once on the verge of a complete meltdown, the financial system has stabilized. Major financial institutions have begun to pay back the emergency loans with interest: According to one report, taxpayers have made a 15 percent profit from the eight largest banks that have fully repaid their TARP funds. Stock markets have rebounded from recent lows. Jobs have not come back yet, but the economy has begun to turn a corner and the groundwork is laid for a recovery.
However, the actions taken over the past year have led to real and justified fears that such unprecedented government intervention will become the norm -- that the government will just keep growing, with no way to pay for the increased spending.
President Obama is not responsible for the country's budget woes. The cost of the stimulus bill passed under his watch was a tiny fraction of the costs of decisions made during the previous administration, including providing tax cuts for the highest-income taxpayers, implementing a Medicare prescription drug plan with no measures to restrain costs, and making long-term military commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Nonetheless, President Obama and congressional Democrats are in charge now, and as they work to address health care and other critical priorities, they must convince the American people that they are charting a responsible, sustainable course for the future.
Republicans in Congress must also contribute ideas and responsible leadership to reduce the nation's debt, rather than simply blaming President Obama.
The ability of the private sector to produce new jobs -- our economic future -- depends on how quickly we can get back on the path to fiscal responsibility. This means that any health-care reform plan should be paid for -- a promise that President Obama has made, and one that his predecessor should have made.
As soon as possible, Congress should also enact a law requiring that any new tax or entitlement programs be paid for with offsetting cuts in spending or new revenue. Perhaps most important, Washington policymakers need to stop taking a myopic view of our nation's budget outlook.
Congress currently considers only the 10-year budgetary impact of new initiatives. As a result, it has repeatedly passed bills that appear to be budget-neutral in the short term but that explode the deficit in the long term. Congress also has developed a bad habit of addressing important issues (such as the estate tax, the alternative minimum tax and payments to health-care providers) on a year-to-year basis.
This postpones, but at the same time worsens, the financial reckoning that is sure to come. Instead, the administration and Congress should systematically consider the impact of every new policy for 10 years and beyond.
Tennessee's 5th District congressman, Jim Cooper, is a leader in Congress on fiscal responsibility as the primary author of bipartisan legislation that sets a timeline for Congress to act to reverse the country's deficits. Under Rep. Cooper's plan, if Congress doesn't muster the political courage to act, a bipartisan commission would recommend ways to balance the budget that Congress would be forced to consider. It is modeled on the bipartisan process for consolidating military installations around the country. Congress should act on Rep. Cooper's plan.
The extraordinary measures taken at the height of the nation's economic crisis were needed, but it is time to take the long view. The American people will support initiatives such as health-care reform only if they can trust the current leadership not to leave them and their children with a massive bill.
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