CAPITOL VIEW

By Pat Nolan, Senior Vice President, Dye, Van Mol & Lawrence Public Relations

October 20, 2006

With the first votes now being cast in the U.S. Senate race, endorsements, along with the attack ads, continue to be front and center in the campaigns.

For Democrats, that means continuing to link Congressman Harold Ford, Jr. with incumbent Governor Phil Bredesen. Bredesen is heavily favored to win re-election and his coattails of assistance could really help Ford in a tight race.

The latest includes a direct mail piece paid for by the State Democratic Party which features color photos of both Ford and Bredesen and tells voters they have 14 days to change America by casting their ballots early. The piece says that change means Democratic leadership in Tennessee and Washington and claims Governor Bredesen has Tennessee moving again and that Ford will get the country back on track.

The mailer also tries to link Republican Senate nominee Bob Corker to President Bush’s low popularity numbers. It shows a picture of President Bush speaking during an Oval Office address with someone holding a TV remote. The caption reads “don’t just change the channel, change America.”

And look for the Bredesen-Ford connection to be further united soon with several days of joint campaigning across the state. Several private polls taken within the last 2 weeks or so, show Ford has anywhere from a 7 to 12 point lead in Tennessee’s 5 congressional districts held by Democrats. That could free up Ford and Bredesen to do a lot of their campaigning in the GOP parts of the state. One place Bredesen may clearly help Ford is in the Knoxville area which Bredesen carried four years ago and where Ford is reportedly running pretty well.

As for the Corker campaign, he seems to be spending most of his time building his base in the four Congressional districts now held by Republicans, especially the three in East Tennessee. As for the other GOP-held district in West Tennessee, Corker seems to be looking for help from a former primary foe, Ed Bryant.

Bryant, also a former Congressman in that area, has a new TV ad praising Corker for what he did as Mayor of Chattanooga, such things as cutting crime, improving education, revitalizing the city and building affordable housing. These are life experiences Bryant says we need in the U.S. Senate. As for their very bitter primary, Bryant admits in the ad “it was spirited” but he adds that Corker “is a good man” and “there wasn’t a day I didn’t respect Bob”. It will be interesting to see how that plays with voters, since they both called each other liars repeatedly in the final days of the primary.

Of course, we won’t know whose endorsements work better until November 7.
MORE ON BRYANT AND BREDESEN….

The emergence of Ed Bryant as a potential “closer” for the Bob Corker campaign is a little odd and unexpected in some ways. Sure, like a good Republican he endorsed Corker as the nominee and did a little nominal campaigning for him early on (just like the other defeated candidate, Van Hilleary).

But while Hilleary has faded out of sight (for good?), Bryant has re-emerged. Is it because Tom Ingram and others in the Corker camp realize he might be the best person who can truly move GOP conservatives to come back to the fold and win the race for Corker in November?

Even among Corker supporters Bryant seems to carry a lot of clout. I understand when he was introduced (and his new ad played for the first time) to a statewide meeting of campaign leaders from all 95 counties recently, he got a standing ovation.

But if Bryant can really move the GOP, why does his ad make NO mention of any of the social conservative issues (like abortion) where so many in the Republican base find Bob Corker lacking? Even a recent Pat Robertson-CBN national cable news story made Harold Ford look better on these issues than Corker. Yikes!

Maybe there’s just so much any “closer” can do? Or maybe staying away from those issues was part of the agreement between Bryant and the Corker campaign to cut the ad and come back and campaign for him? More to come…

As for Governor Bredesen, along with supporting Harold Ford, he is pushing a broad ballot of Democrats he would like to see elected to the General Assembly. That has not gone unnoticed by Republicans. While they are truly concerned about Bredesen’s strong potential coattails, they believe he may be over-reaching and that instead of more political support, the Governor may reap a backlash in the next session of legislature, as GOP members (who have been critical to the approval of many of the Governor’s proposals in his first term) become even more partisan than usual.

So watch the Governor’s batting average election night (how many candidates he is supporting win). It may tell you a lot about how successful the early years of Bredesen’s second term will be.












FORD/ROCHELLE

For someone who is really counting on the coattails of another candidate (the Governor), Harold Ford, Jr. may not have made a wise choice by endorsing and attending a recent fund raiser for State Senate candidate Bob Rochelle. Coattails or tying yourself to another candidate can also hurt you.

Rochelle is a former Senator and one of the most outspoken legislative leaders for a state income tax a few years back. Rochelle now says such a tax is a dead issue and he would only support it if it was approved by a voter referendum.

But the intense controversy over Rochelle rages on and Ford endorsing him is particularly poor timing when the Democrat is trying to connect Bob Corker to the income tax controversy through his work as State Finance Commissioner for former Governor (and strong income tax supporter) Don Sundquist.

It’s sends a very mixed and confusing message to voters at a very critical time. It may also now tie up Ford in the old income tax controversy (in which he has played no role) rather than talking about why he would be the best next U.S. Senator for Tennessee.

Sometimes in politics you have to do what you have to do. Rochelle’s district (along with the rest of the doughnut counties around Nashville) are critical for Ford in his plans to win the Senate seat. So he can’t afford to alienate Rochelle or his supporters. But Ford has been adept at avoiding political blunders (note his ability to stay neutral and so far not get politically hurt concerning the race for his own Congressional seat between the Democratic nominee State Senator Steve Cohen and Ford’s own brother, Jake). Anybody who can finesse something like that surely ought to be smart enough not to get caught up in this potential political trap (or at least no win situation) regarding Bob Rochelle. Dumb.


THE ADS….

I guess even without “the full Fred”, the current endorsement ad, voiced by former Senator Fred Thompson for Bob Corker, must be pretty effective.

The National Democratic Senate Committee has put up its own ad attacking the Thompson spot almost point by point. You don’t waste valuable campaign time and money on something like that, unless that ad has been working, even if it is a very unusual biographical ad not usually aired this late in a campaign cycle.

As for Corker’s other ads, he may need to be careful not to overdo it You can only push the “where did he grow up, where did he go to school (not UT like Bob), and who’s his family” so hard and so long or it could backfire on you.

Ford is already beginning the push back. You can see him talk about all the U.S. Senate race issues and controversies on my INSIDE POLITICS show this weekend. We air on NEWSCHANNEL 5 PLUS, COMCAST CHANNEL 50 at 7:30 PM Friday (October 20), then on Saturday (October 21) at 5:30 PM. On Sunday you can see the show at 5:00 AM, 12:30 PM and 8:30 PM. We are also appearing on NewsChannel 5, WTVF-TV at 5:00 AM on Saturday (October 21). Since we began our run on the main channel before we did our earlier interview with Bob Corker on INSIDE POLITICS, we will be repeating that show this Saturday at 5:30 AM right after the Ford interview.

A little doubleheader politics to begin your weekend!


THE POLLS….

The latest Wall Street Journal/Zogby poll must be like manna from heaven for the Corker campaign showing him up 7 points statewide (49%-42%) over Ford. That’s a much bigger change and margin than any other recent poll has shown and for sure, the internet-based technology used in that effort (as opposed to the more traditional surveys done by telephone) is bound to kick up a fuss again.

As usual, let’s wait and see what the other polls are showing in the next few days before drawing any conclusions or forecasting trends. But a surge in support is certainly what the Corker folks are looking for to energize their base and show they have overcome their slump (and major campaign shakeup from a few weeks ago).

One thing that can be said for sure I think is that under the new leadership of Tom Ingram, the Corker campaign has become much more focused and effective. It has likely stopped its slide and based on the fierce back and forth coming from each side, remains well positioned to still win the race. The Ford campaign remains strong but it is harder to see the momentum of a few weeks ago and that’s interesting given the strong national trends that seem to favor Democrats.

I am also puzzled a bit by another Wall Street Journal poll, this one with NBC News. It shows that nationwide (by the largest margin ever 52%-37%) voters plan to vote Democratic for Congress in November. The Republican-led Congress has an approval rating of just 16%. Ouch!

As the Democratic candidate that ought to help Harold Ford, although as a sitting U.S. Congressman (even a minority party member), he might still get a little backlash from the low esteem shown for Washington (and Corker is working hard to exploit that).

Still if both polls prove accurate, it would seem to show Tennessee is not following the national trend which seems to favor Democrats this cycle. And I find that someone curious. Also curious is what my sources in both camps are telling me. Both say their nightly tracking polls show them maintaining 4-5 point leads. How can that be? Well maybe how they are sampling the voters and how they are weighing the vote (how much from Middle, West and East Tennessee, what percentage women, black, men, etc) could make those kinds of differences.

As we get closer to the final days, I hear more and more people comparing the Harold Ford campaign (which even die-hard Republicans admit has been masterfully conducted so far) to other campaigns run by African American candidates in other Southern states. In some cases (Harvey Gant in North Carolina and Doug Wilder in Virginia) they significantly underperformed their last poll numbers when the votes were counted. So they say unless Ford shows a lead at least a couple of points beyond the margin for error (say a lead of at least 5-8%) he may not make it to victory.

While some see this as voters being unwilling to tell pollsters the truth (especially in phone surveys) about who they really plan to vote for, a Ford campaign representative says they don’t see this as a racial issue, that white candidates fall short of their poll numbers too sometimes on the Election Day. But, there is an unspoken political parlor game now being played in Tennessee. It asks this question: If Harold Ford, Jr. was a white candidate how far ahead would he be in this race? A lot of folks think it wouldn’t be nearly as close as it appears to be right now.

We’ll see come November 7.

THE REPUBS

What a difference an election cycle or two can make. A few days ago, Vice President Dick Cheney came to Ft. Campbell to honor the 101st Airborne just back home from Iraq.

Two years ago and especially four years ago, every major elected Republican official in the state would have crossed the Kentucky border to be there to welcome the VP and help him with the event.

But unless I missed it, I didn’t see any Tennessee GOP officials or candidates out in the cold soaking rain at Ft. Campbell when Cheney was there. Don’t misunderstand they will all say they still support the troops (and they probably do), but the Iraqi policies of Cheney and President Bush have become so unpopular they are seen as politically radioactive by many, so they politely stay as far away as they can.

Then there is the Republican-led Congress with its record low approval ratings. To protect himself and to try and get a little political leverage on the issue, Bob Corker has now has his own plan to “reform Washington”. It includes (interestingly enough) a ban on family members lobbying Congress, full disclosure of Congressional travel paid for by outside parties, and reform of the use of earmarks by Congressional leaders for pork projects in their states.

Not only does this new plan give Corker some talking points so he can pivot away from talking about the many specific problems facing Republican leaders (some of which he does address in his plan although not such issues as the page sex scandal). It also gives Corker a chance to re-enforce his attacks on Harold Ford concerning his use of trip junkets along with his ties to his Congressional lobbyist father. Good move politically

It apparently got Harold Ford’s attention. Showing up with his campaign bus, he tried to crash Corker’s Memphis news conference announcing his plan and (according to THE MEMPHIS COMMERCIAL APPEAL) change it into a parking lot debate over U.S. Iraqi policy. Corker was no doubt irritated and later a campaign spokesman said Ford was acting in juvenile, non-Senatorial fashion. Ford folks said the same thing about Corker being unwilling to do more debates.

This is the second time in recent days that someone with the Ford campaign has shown up right before or just after a Corker event to try and give their side of the story. That’s generally considered bad form and a bit rude even in politics.

Is Corker’s apparent campaign resurgence starting to annoy Harold Ford and his campaign?


THE MONEY

Financial disclosures on the national level are due to be filed and released just hours after this was being written, but already the U.S. Senate candidates have set a Tennessee record for spending.

We are well over $22 million and climbing like a rocket. Many observers have been saying $40 million would be the top out figure when all was said and done. Now, with outside groups like those who financed the “Swift Boat” attack ads two years getting into the act in Tennessee, that number could come closer to hitting $50 million.

Both sides continue to claim that national support for the other candidate is drying out or being withdrawn, but to the contrary, the Tennessee race continues to grow in national importance, especially to the future control of the Senate, so it appears doubtful much of anything will shut off the money machine before Election Day.

Mercy