CAPITOL VIEW

By Pat Nolan, Senior Vice President, Dye, Van Mol & Lawrence Public Relations

September 29, 2006

The most recent Tennessee U.S. Senate race polls circulating in the media show that one of the candidates is up between 5 to 6 points. But, interestingly, the polls differ about which candidate that is.

The latest Wall Street Journal/Zogby poll says it's Bob Corker by 5. Harold Ford, Jr.'s campaign had earlier released its own poll that he said he was ahead by 6 points.

Who's right? It is hard to say for certain, as there are questions that can been raised about both polls. The WSJ/Zogby survey, while done independently, is internet based and some people still have problems with that methodology producing reliable results (that includes the Corker campaign which raised these same kinds of questions when previous polls done by WSJ/Zogby showed less favorable numbers for their candidate).

Meanwhile, Ford's poll is an internal one released by his campaign. And while the firm he is using (Benenson Strategies) is highly respected (as is Zogby), polls released by campaigns are always considered a little suspect. Ever seen a campaign release a poll that shows its candidate getting skunked or falling behind?

But in that regard, it is interesting to note the Corker campaign's immediate reaction to the Ford poll. Instead of dismissing the numbers and saying Corker was in the lead, a spokesman said: We are in a strong position to win this race. Jennifer Duffy, the Senate and Governor's Editor for Cook's Political Report said in a recent article on September 27 (sent to me by the Ford campaign) .Republicans have not released competing numbers polling data or even whispered it off the record, suggesting that their (Corker's) numbers must be similar. So the WSJ/Zogby numbers must have been seen like manna from heaven in the GOP camp when they surfaced on September 28.

All this says to me that the Tennessee U.S. Senate race remains very competitive and very much in flux. Want further proof? How about some possible big changes and new faces in Bob Corker's campaign? That includes hiring a new media guru (Fred Davis who is also helping GOP gubernatorial candidate Jim Bryson)? And there are reports that Corker (under pressure from national Republicans unhappy with his campaign?) is bringing in Tom Ingram, former Deputy Governor and now Chief of Staff for Senator Lamar Alexander to run the Corker show. I attempted to get confirmation or denials of these reports about Ingram rumor from both the Alexander and Corker staff on Friday afternoon as this column was being finalized, but phone calls were not returned before this was submitted and post on-line.



The Corker people will no doubt try to minimize any political fallout or damage from any of this. In fact, Corker himself told me that the new media guru has been hired as an addition to the media team and that the change was being done to handle the large workload of the campaign. But that may not be easy to sell, especially if the Ingram report proves to be true (and NashvillePost.com says it is true in a story it posted late Friday afternoon).

These late developments also may put a whole new light on which poll most accurately reflects the current situation with voters in the Senate race, don't you think? I don't think you makes changes like this in a campaign that's up 5 points. Nor due you make them less than 6 weeks before the election and just 3 weeks before early voting starts unless there is a serious concern about where the Corker campaign is headed.

As all this unfolds, both Senate candidates are also making significant changes in their TV ads. Let's talk about that in some detail.


CORKER

You can call it Bob Corker's 50 per cent solution. Or you can view it as, if it worked once, try it again.

I am talking about the Republican U.S. Senate candidate's latest TV ad in which claims that while he was Mayor of Chattanooga he cut violent crime by 50%. We figured out who the bad guys were and we send them away, he tells his mother. 50%, not bad, says his mom as ad ends.

Now this is not the first time Mrs. Corker has appeared in an ad with her son. In fact, her appearance early in the primary campaign was very well received, especially her admonishment to her son to remember that Corkers always keep their word. The ad came at a time when Corker was being roundly criticized by his party opponents for flip flopping on the issues and not being a true conservative.

The ad seemed to work. The charges never really stuck to Corker after that. And combined with a larger campaign war chest than his opponents, which helped pay for many more TV ads, Corker easily won the August primary.

Since then, it appears Corker gone into a slump, losing the early advantage he held over Democrat Harold Ford, Jr. That's despite a torrent of TV ads from the Corker campaign and national Republicans criticizing the Memphis Congressman for being weak and two-faced on issues such as national security, immigration and for being the most liberal member of our Tennessee delegation.

But if this constant pounding of Ford has worked, the polls are yet to reflect it. In fact Ford seems to have more than held his ground, joining national Democrats with their own attack ads, going after Corker for being two-faced about illegal immigration and for not telling the truth in general about Ford's record.

So it appears the Corker campaign may be going back to Mama to try and find a new issue and a new spark, something to maybe warm up the candidate a bit, take off the hard edge he and his campaign may have developed by airing so many negative ads even dating back to the last month of the primary campaign.

Want more confirmation? Corker confirms to me it was Fred Davis, his new media who created this new spot.

But unlike Corker's primary opponents, the Ford campaign so far seems to have the resources to respond. They have already sent to the media a 12-page rebuttal to Corker's tough on crime ad. The Ford folks cite FBI and Chattanooga police statistics which they say show there was nowhere near a 50% decline and that violent crime numbers actually increased in Corker's final year in office. And in direct contradiction to the Corker ad, the Ford camp charges that even with the help of the U.S. Justice Department, the Corker administration was not able to arrest even half of the 50 worst of the worst criminal offenders identified in that city during a special crime crackdown.

I feel another round of TV attack ads coming soon. In fact, while we are a long way from Groundhog's Day, with the election set for Tuesday, November 7, it is clear we are in for about 6 more weeks of this kind of tough campaigning.


FORD

I told you.

Not long after I wrote the words above, the Ford campaign has now come out with a new attack ad. It doesn't address Corker's crime claims (maybe that's still to come). Instead, somewhat like Corker, the new ad goes in a different direction from what we've seen from the Ford campaign (and I think it may be taking a big risk)

In almost all of Ford's previous ads (this doesn't includes the attack spots from the National Senate Democrats), the candidate has been the star and the focus of the spot. And he has been a sensation. Even when going after Corker himself (such as in the church ad), Ford has managed to do so without coming on too strong. But this new ad (in which the candidate appears only briefly at the beginning (for the I approve this message statement) is a parody of the old Lifestyles of the Rich & Famous TV show with the voice over being done by someone who even sounds like Robin Leach, the host of the program (including a little British accent).

The ad goes after Corker for a lavish lifestyle (living in a big house, owing several SUVs) as well as allegedly taking three pay raises while Mayor of Chattanooga at the same time raises for police and firefighters were frozen (hence the name of the spot That's Cold). Some people I've talked to think the ad is done in a humorous way. Obviously, the Corker folks aren't laughing. They say the information about the police and fire pay raises is factually wrong and they are demanding Ford take the ad off the air.

I wouldn't hold my breath about that if I was Corker, anymore than the Fancy Ford website put up by the National Republicans earlier this year (critical of Ford's alleged lavish lifestyle) comes down. But with Chattanooga Fire and Police officials backing Corker's side of the story, this could become a ongoing controversy Ford can't win and if this turns out to be a true gaffe for the campaign, it could put Ford on the defensive for the first time in the general election. Finally, I would also question why the Ford campaign wants to go away from a campaign ad style (using their candidate) which has been working so well.

Of course, the Corker folks might say the change in Ford's ad style might be because the WSJ/Zogby poll is correct and Ford is desperate to catch up. While Ford's camp would say Corker's new ad and his campaign shakeup is a sign of chaos and concern on the Corker side and that Ford's internal poll is a more accurate reflection where things stand.

And so it goes.sources tell me the National Democratic Senatorial Committee has a new TV spot (and you can be sure it will be an attack ad) coming out early next week statewide with a total buy of $350,000.

Looks like rumors that Ford may soon be running out of money or the National Democrats are cutting back on their support have so far not materialized.



TEMPER, TEMPER

It's pretty obvious Harold Ford can't wait to debate Bob Corker.

And when he had what the Associated Press described as an awkward meeting with him at Nashville's City Club a few days ago while the two candidates were passing in the hall, Ford let him know about it (with the media in hearing range).

According to the AP story by Erik Schelzig, Ford encouraged Corker to add a Knoxville debate to the three the candidates already have scheduled in October. According to the AP report: Corker responded that we may have to talk about that, adding that he was looking forward to debating Ford in his hometown of Memphis (the other debates are in Corker's hometown of Chattanooga and here in Nashville at Vanderbilt University on October 28 to be televised statewide by NewsChannel 5).

But that wasn't enough for Ford. Remember, he challenged his opponent primary election night in August to do multiple debates all over the state. And he remains unhappy that Corker turned down a nationally televised debate on NBC's MEET THE PRESS and then agreed to come on CNBC's Kudlow & Company only if he and Ford could appear separately.

I guess it all got to Congressman Ford a little bit and he told the AP later that Corker is a wimp for not agreeing to more debates. He added; We're the Volunteer Stare. We're not the wimp state. And he is behaving more like a wimp than like a Volunteer. And Ford went on (and off) saying: How the heck is he going to stand up to the forces of evil in this world if he can't stand next to me and debate me about the issues.

Wow! Anybody got a chill pill?

This is not the first time Ford has done something like this. He called Corker and his primary opponents The Three Stooges over their campaign antics a few months back. And, of course, we have (and probably will) hear worse in the weeks to come as I am sure the word liar will be prominently featured in campaign TV ads to come (as it was in the GOP primary).

But Ford needs to be careful. His latest comments put him again in a position for his opponents to question his maturity and temperament to be an effective United States Senator (as a Corker campaign spokesperson already has). There were similar complaints after his Three Stooges remarks, but that happened some months back when most folks weren't really paying all that much attention to this political contest.

But now they are, and if Ford's polls are accurate, many swing voters and others are giving Ford serious consideration. Anything he does that allows his opponents to raise new doubts in their minds is probably not a good thing for him.

I also suspect there is some political gamesmanship going on here as well by Ford, trying to set the context and the expectations the way he wants the media and the public to perceive things as the first debate approaches. And of course, trying to put your opponent off balance is also something that might be part of the Ford strategy here, too.