In a survey of 600 Alabamians conducted from January 8-14, 2009, by the polling firm of Anzalone-Liszt Research Inc., U. S. Rep. Artur Davis (D-Bham) is locked in a statistical dead heat with three leading potential Republican candidates for Governor. Davis is tied with State Treasurer Kay Ivey, 42 to 42 percent, leads Two Year College Chancellor Bradley Byrne 42 to 38 percent, and trails Troy University Chancellor Jack Hawkins 39 to 44 percent.
Davis' showings against each Republican outpace the 33 percent of respondents who say that without knowing the names of the candidates, they would be more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate for governor in 2010. In each match-up, Davis runs well ahead of the generic Democratic vote with white votes: against Hawkins, he runs nine points ahead of the core white Democratic vote, 12 points better against Byrne, and 11 points better against Ivey. According to Davis' general consultant Ben Chao of Chao Strategy Message and Media Inc., "This poll basically says two important things. One, Congressman Davis can win a statewide campaign for Governor in 2010. Two, Davis has amazing crossover appeal from Republicans and Independents alike in a general election. Its still early but the electability metrics for Davis are through the roof."
Davis' overall popularity ratings with white voters are approximately two to one favorable, with a majority of whites knowing enough about Davis to have an opinion. In comparison, Lt. Governor Jim Folsom also has a favorable to unfavorable ratio of about two to one with white voters. Among white Democrats, Davis shows broad appeal, with a favorable to unfavorable number of 51 to six percent unfavorable. Among demographic subgroups, Davis shows particular strength with white males 18 to 54, with a favorable to unfavorable split of 41 to 16 percent, and white females over 55, with a favorable to unfavorable ratio of 38 to 12 percent. In fact, with whites 45-54, Davis is almost tied with Ivey, trailing only 39 to 44 percent.
With black voters, Davis remains by a large margin the most popular political figure at the state political level. Sixty-five percent of black voters hold a favorable opinion of Davis, while only four percent hold an unfavorable view.
The survey also tested the impact when respondents were informed of Davis' identity as an African American. According to pollster John Anzalone, "While race is an impossible factor to evaluate in any campaign, it is fair to say that when white voters learn that Davis is black, that fact alone does not shift them away from Davis. On balance, when they are told that he is a black congressman from Birmingham, Davis' support actually moves up in a majority of the white subgroups based on gender and age."
Respondents were asked if they believe that Alabama is ready to elect a black governor in 2010. A majority (51 percent) agree, while 38 percent disagree. These results are virtually unchanged from the July sample, which split 53 percent agree to 37 percent disagree. Sixty-nine percent of voters overall say that they believe their family members would consider voting for a black candidate for governor, while 18 percent say that their family members would not be willing to consider voting for a black.
Davis spokesperson Anna Ruth Williams stated that "As Congressman Davis prepares to announce his plans regarding the governor's race, it is apparent that he is in a leading or dead even position with the leading Republican contenders in a wide range of published and unpublished polls conducted in Alabama in the last several months. These polls only confirm what he experiences as he moves around the state and receives constant encouragement to return home to run for Governor."
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